When the first batch of bread was baked after New Year’s Day, Welsh women made a small round cake for each person in the house, named it and pressed a hole in it with the thumb. If any hole baked up, the person the cake was named for would die within the year.
Thumb-holed cakes after New Year’s Day
1 January · Wales
Lore and belief
Each cake was given a name, and a hole was made in it with the thumb. If any hole became baked up, it was a sure sign that the person to whom the cake was assigned would die within the year.
From Trevelyan's Folk-Lore of Wales, p. 257. Read the original
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